Hurricane season forecast: What to expect, and what could happen

This is our attempt to fill the timeline we believe will be helpful to you for planning your hurricane season. The Atlantic Basin is predicting a potential busy year with 18 named storms, including…

Hurricane season forecast: What to expect, and what could happen

This is our attempt to fill the timeline we believe will be helpful to you for planning your hurricane season.

The Atlantic Basin is predicting a potential busy year with 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

On average, 12 hurricanes form in the Atlantic basin each year, 5 of which become major hurricanes.

That 14 named storms make it to hurricane status is what is more likely than not. If all 18 hurricanes make it to the U.S., the U.S. will be struck by a hurricane for the 11th straight year.

If the total becomes 15, the Atlantic would tie with 2005 for the longest stretch of years with at least 15 named storms.

The forecast covers the tropical Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern North Atlantic, as well as the western Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific.

The numbers are based on a proprietary model developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to mimic statistical odds of becoming a tropical cyclone.

For the remainder of this year, we also expect the Caribbean and Central America to see at least four hurricanes.

The U.S. East Coast is forecast to see no more than six named storms in the Atlantic basin. The final figure will depend on what winds of overall activity have been in the U.S. waters.

We also predict no more than one hurricane will affect the United States.

The model is forecasting the hurricane season to be similar to last year, with an average maximum sustained wind for a named storm of about 85 mph.

A tropical storm reaches a certain threshold to become a hurricane. By the end of the season, a hurricane will reach this threshold about six percent of the time.

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